财务管理学培训资料课件.pptVIP

Simulation Approach Each variable is assigned an appropriate probability distribution. The distribution for the selling price of baskets created by Basket Wonders might look like: $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 .02 .08 .22 .36 .22 .08 .02 The resulting proposal value is dependent on the distribution and interaction of EVERY variable listed on slide 14-30. 第三十一页，共四十四页。 Simulation Approach Each proposal will generate an internal rate of return. The process of generating many, many simulations results in a large set of internal rates of return. The distribution might look like the following: INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (%) PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE 第三十二页，共四十四页。 14-* Chapter 14 Risk and Managerial Options in Capital Budgeting ? 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Fundamentals of Financial Management, 11/e Created by: Gregory A. Kuhlemeyer, Ph.D. Carroll College, Waukesha, WI 第一页，共四十四页。 Risk and Managerial Options in Capital Budgeting The Problem of Project Risk Total Project Risk Contribution to Total Firm Risk: Firm-Portfolio Approach Managerial Options 第二页，共四十四页。 An Illustration of Total Risk (Discrete Distribution) ANNUAL CASH FLOWS: YEAR 1 PROPOSAL A State Probability Cash Flow Deep Recession .05 $ -3,000 Mild Recession .25 1,000 Normal .40 5,000 Minor Boom .25 9,000 Major Boom .05 13,000 第三页，共四十四页。 Probability Distribution of Year 1 Cash Flows .40 .05 .25 Probability -3,000 1,000 5,000 9,000 13,000 Cash Flow ($) Proposal A 第四页，共四十四页。 CF1 P1 (CF1)(P1) $ -3,000 .05 $ -150 1,000 .25 250 5,000 .40 2,000 9,000 .25 2,250 13,000 .05 650 S=1.00 CF1=$5,000 Expected Value of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal A) 第五页，共四十四页。 (CF1)(P1) (CF1 - CF1)2(P1) $ -150 ( -3,000 - 5,000)2 (.05)