高速公路强制换道持续时间半参数生存分析.docVIP

高速公路强制换道持续时间半参数生存分析 吴江玲 张生瑞 Amit Kumar Singh 秦思 孙振东 长安大学公路学院 Atkins North America,Inc. X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 为了分析高速公路施工作业区车辆的换道行为, 运用生存分析的半参数方法, 建立基于风险的车辆强制换道持续时间模型, 通过无人机采集包茂高速公路陕西境内某路段施工作业区的交通数据, 对道路车辆强制换道持续时间进行估计.结果表明:强制换道持续过程的生存时间大于5s的概率约为80%, 大于10s的概率为28%, 一半以上处在5～10s之间;当距离小于400m时, 换道起点至合流点距离越近, 车辆强制换道持续时间越短;当距离大于400m时, 车辆换道持续时间开始降低.车辆换道时间持续到t时刻, 在至合流点距离50～100m范围内开始换道的车辆, 在下一时刻完成换道的可能性最大. 关键词： 强制换道; 换道持续时间; 施工区; 生存分析; 作者简介：吴江玲 (1987—) , 女, 博士生, 从事交通安全、智能交通等研究.ORCID:0000-0001-8736-0903.E-mail:wujiangling2006@ 作者简介：张生瑞, 男, 教授.ORCID:0000-0002-9401-4686.E-mail:zhangsr@ 收稿日期：2016-12-28 基金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目 (310821172202) Semi-parametric survival analysis of mandatory lane changing duration on freeways WU Jiang-ling ZHANG Sheng-rui SINGH Amit Kumar QIN Si SUN Zhen-dong School of Highway, Changan University; Atkins North America, Inc.; Abstract： A hazard-based mandatory lane changing (MLC) duration model was established using the semiparametric method of survival analysis in order to analyze vehicles lane changing behavior characteristics on freeway work zones.Field data in work zone at Bao-mao Freeway located in Shaanxi Province were collected through an unmanned aerial vehicle.The MLC durations were estimated by analyzing the field data.Results show that the probability of MLC process survival time more than 5 sis about 80%, and the probability of survival time more than 10 sis 28%.More than half of motor vehicles lane changing (LC) process survival time are between 5～10 s.In terms of the distance from LC initial point to the merge point, in the range of 400 m, the less it is, the shorter the MLC duration will be.As the distance increases great than 400 m, the motor vehicles MLC duration decreases.When the MLC processes last to t, the possibility of the motor vehicles, whose LC initial points locate in 50 to 100 maway from the merging point, complete LC is the greatest in the next moment. Keyword：