招商证券-欧元区债务危机发展动向追踪：欧洲债务危机进入新阶段,亟待政策有效应对.pdfVIP

Report | Macro Analysis Comments Report Sovereign debt crisis entered into new stage 25 September 2011 An Update on Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Development Key Data USA % 10 11E  The September euro zone composite PMI fell to 49.2, the lowest since July 2009. The GDP 2.9 1.6 output growth stagnated, new orders dropped sharply for the second consecutive month, and CPI 1.6 2.6 this was the fastest decline since May 2009. The industrial export orders also fell to the Unemployment 9.6 9.0 slowest since June 2009, indicating aggregate demand slowed down further. The growth of Trade balance/GDP -3.2 -3.4 new orders in German and France fell sharply and hit the 2-year lowest level. The leading Fiscal indicators of the euro area again shows the gradual loss of economic momentum, the 3Q balance/GDP -8.1 -9.2 economic growth will stagnate, and as the sovereign debt crisis continues to worsen in the Policy rate 0.25 0.25 coming months, the euro zones economic growth faces increasing downside risks. Dollar Index 79.0 77.0 Eurozone  After the announcement of the more stringent austerity plan, Greece is more likely to % 10 11E obtain the 80 billion bailouts. But even if Greece obtains this set of bailout payment GDP 1.8 1.5 successfully, it just means to help Greeces debt problem to rollover for a period of time. CPI 1.58 2.5 With further deterioration in the economic environment, Greece is unable to repay its debt Unemployment 10