我国大中城市不同层次房价上涨的影响因素比较分析——基于个大中城市的面板数据分析.docVIP

我国大中城市不同层次房价上涨的影响因素比较分析——基于35个大中城市的面板数据分析 University, Beijing 100048) Abstract: Since 2009, Commercial housing prices fonned three tiers of price levels on 35 large and medium cities in China. The average prices and house price income ratio of these three level house price cities have obvious differences. The Analysis of panel data model show that the main factors are the total amount of investment in real estate development and Money market liquidity, these main factors cause commercial housing prices of frrst, second and third-tier price cities going up, and their elastic impact on first-tier price cities strength significant1y larger than the second and third-tier price cities. Financial markets expected had inhibitory effects to Price increases on first-tier price cities and second-tier price cities of Hangzhou, Xiamen, Ningbo and Guangzhou, but no inhibitory effects on second-tier price cities ofTianjin, Dalian, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Haikou and all third-tier price cities. Key words: large and medium cities; the three tiers ofprice levels; panel data models; influence factors 一、2008年之前我国城市房价波动住房市场化改革的推进和房地产市场投1854元/平方米，提高到2008年的4875的影晌因素回顾资规模的不断扩大，我国房地产市场进元j平方米，年均增长10.15%(按水平入了持续繁荣的高速发展时期。我国大法计算)。期间，由于房地产投资过1998年下半年开始，随着我国城镇中城市商品住宅销售均价从1998年的热、房价上涨过快等原因.2003-2008 [基金项目]国家社科基金重点项目;十二五前期价格上涨趋势及主要影响因素分析;(项目编号11AJY009);国家社科基金项目;我国农产品价格波动与调控机制研究;(项目编号10BJY087);北京市教委科技创新平台项目;价格波动研究;。[作者简介]玉琴英(1965-).女，江西于都人，北京工商大学经济学院副教授，研究方向:数量经济学、宏观经济分析。-:1::11:1.]:1阳匹JlI[.U#039;!.四·睡11:也JlI:::z:e宙·皿·矗酶:tt:.E圈议和制 年1-:、|主;f::.政府实施{一系纠Jì.H也产ìJ，#039;iJr;;t，;，#039;fi毡以促.ì1.U;;，.t也FLt=1!、人庄、j部I~I(见J←1).1fT以认为这12个城Ili)t#039;:I:#039;:j}污价rliJ劝他版发岭、f.~tíJ!11:的diJ$}价附j(.J HU;I以dTJj;.价1#039;，涨城dJ#039;:1，7JII、t.深圳、-Itkfll 1: i??J:3个1)amp;dil#039;ilt;Hì}价义IYlMl也lUJ下过快的}I;(I大1amp; J t J;~ )??l东分听.问II.JJ??J的义:I~k研究成*包Jt他城巾，足35个大小城dj均价f附近似.jf;;i必间的以1.:.jt~ ;1[’) l~，f，: it悦、刘洪r:.(2004)涵过研究1H价17经济必本1(tj(I~天iI~ 23个城市的r~ffl#039;，7，1t它Bj价则I~T均价乎均水平，他们之#039;1#039;的价的内的盐#039;，#039;1岛.均价为6407.81兀/平方米.批111fll