[管理学]非等间距新息GM1_1的逐步优化模型及其应用.pdfVIP

30 12 Vol.30, No.12 2010 12 Systems Engineering — Theory Practice Dec., 2010 : 1000-6788(2010)12-2254-05 : N94 : A GM(1,1) (, 415000) , GM(1,1) Æ GM(1,1) , n , . , , , GM(1,1) , . . ; GM ; ; ; Non-equidistant step by step optimum new information GM(1,1) and its application LUO You-xin (College of Mechanical Engineering, Hunan University of Arts and Science, Changde 415000, China) Abstract Applying modeling method of grey system and new information principle, in the basis of the grey modeling thought, non-equidistant step by step optimum new information GM(1,1) model was put forward, which was directly modeled according to original data, whose parameters were estimated by optimizing derivative’s adjusting coefficients whiting values background values coefficient and the nth component was taken as the initialization. The model breaks the restricted zone of using GM(1,1) when the absolute value of the development coefficient is quite big, which can be used in non-equal interval equal interval time series and improve the modeling precision. Examples validate the practicability and reliability of the proposed model. Keywords initialization; optimization; GM direct model; new information principle; non-equidistance 1 , , . , GM(1,1)GM(1, N)MGM(1, N) [1−3] . , , Æ. GM(1,1) , [4–7] , x(1) , . ( [1] (1) ), , . [8–9] x n GM(1,1) , [10] x(1) n MGM(1, N) , [11] x(1) n