高速公路减速波事故的前兆特征与概率模型.docVIP

高速公路减速波事故的前兆特征与概率模型 张辉 陈柯羽 东南大学交通学院 南京师范大学附属中学 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 为了研究高速公路减速波事故的前兆交通特征, 选用了美国I880高速公路的一条路段的交通流数据和事故数据, 从减速波事故的产生机理出发, 通过跟驰行为的安全条件, 推导出减速波事故前兆特征因子的交通状态表达方法。分析发现, 高速公路上下游速度差和上游交通密度是减速波事故的两个前兆特征因子, 上下游速度差和上游交通密度越大, 高速公路减速波事故发生的概率越高。基于此, 描述了减速波事故发生概率与高速公路上下游速度差和上游交通密度的数学关系, 并进一步建立了减速波事故概率模型, 应用所采集的数据拟合了提出的事故概率模型。结果显示, 模型的拟合度为0.673, 说明减速波事故发生概率与其前兆因子存在正相关关系, 预测模型在一定程度上可以反映真实概率的大小。 关键词： 减速波; 交通事故; 前兆特征因子; 事故概率模型; 预警; 作者简介：张辉 (1993—) , 男, 浙江绍兴人, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为交通流理论、交通规划。E-mail:220152579@seu.edu.cn。 收稿日期：2017-09-18 基金：江苏省交通运输科技与成果转化项目 (JSHC-201707091) Precursory Characteristic and Probability Model of Expressway Deceleration Wave Accident ZHANG Hui CHEN Ke-yu School of Transportation, Southeast University; High School Affiliated to Nanjing Normal University; Abstract： In order to study the precursory traffic characteristics of expressway deceleration wave acci-dent, started from the mechanism of deceleration wave accident, traffic flow data and accident data of theUS I880 Expressway were selected for deducing the traffic state expression method for the precursorycharacteristic factors of deceleration wave through the safety car-following conditions. The analysis dem-onstrated that the velocity difference between upstream and downstream and the upstream traffic densityof the expressway were the two precursory characteristic factors of the deceleration wave accident. Thegreater the velocity difference between upstream and downstream and the higher the upstream trafficdensity, the higher the probability of the accident occurred on the expressway. Based on this, the mathe-matical relationship between the probability of occurrence of deceleration wave accident and its precur-sory factors was described, further the probability model of deceleration wave accident was established, and the model was fitted by the data collected. The results show that the fitting degree of the model is 0.673, wh