hiv incidence in rural south africa comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cbed assay testing南非艾滋病毒感染率在农村比较估计纵向监测和横断面cbe试验测试.pdfVIP

HIV Incidence in Rural South Africa: Comparison of Estimates from Longitudinal Surveillance and Cross- Sectional cBED Assay Testing ¨ 1 1 2,3 2 1 Till Barnighausen *, Claudia Wallrauch , Alex Welte , Thomas A. McWalter , Nhlanhla Mbizana , 1 1 1 4 1,5 Johannes Viljoen , Natalie Graham , Frank Tanser , Adrian Puren , Marie-Louise Newell 1 Africa Centre for Health Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa, 2 School of Computational and Applied Mathematics, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa, 3 DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 4 National Institute of Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa, 5 Centre for Paediatric Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Child Health, University College of London, London, United Kingdom Abstract Background: The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non- recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longi