【汇丰银行-2025研报】巴西经济：5月IPCA：给通胀看跌者的艰难数据.pdfVIP

10June2025

Economics

BrazilEconomicsBrazil

MayIPCA:Atoughprintforinflationbears

◆IPCAat0.26%m-o-minMay(vs0.43%inApril)wasbelow

DanielLavarda

consensus(0.32%)andourforecast(0.34%m-o-m)HeadofBrazilEconomicsResearch

BancoHSBCS.A.

daniel.lavarda@

◆Unlikethepreviousmonth,disinflationwasnotrestrictedtothe+551128022640

morevolatileitems,extendingtosomecoremeasures

◆Weexpect0.28%m-o-minflationinJuneandwekeepour

5.4%y-o-yforecastforend-2025

Higherelectricitytariffswereoffsetbyageneraldisinflationtrend.IPCA

inflationwas0.26%m-o-minMay(vs0.43%inApril),belowmarketconsensus

(0.32%)andourexpectation(0.34%).Onay-o-ybasis,IPCAinflationreached5.3%,

downfrom5.5%inApril.Inthepreviouscoupleofmonths,wesawacommonstory

aboutCPIinflation;oneinwhichthemorevolatilecomponents,suchasfoodathome

andairfares,havebeenpartiallyoffsettingtheupwardmovementinitscore

components.InMay,thepictureshiftedtoonethatismorepositiveforprice

dynamics;thatis,wesawfurtherevidenceofweakeninginflationincore

components.Infact,weseemostofthecoreinflationmeasurestrendingdowninthe

month(onaq-o-qsaa