安徽省农业生产碳排放时空变化及影响因素分析.docVIP

安徽省农业生产碳排放时空变化及影响因素分析 　　摘要：基于安徽省5个基础碳源数据，结合LMDI模型，测算其农业碳排放量，并分析了2006-2015年安徽省农业碳排放的时空变化及其影响因素。结果表明，安徽省农业生产碳排放总量逐渐增加，从2006年的356.53万t增长至2015年的449.03万t；碳排放强度的变化与总量变化基本保持一致，从2006年的87.28 t/km2增长至2015年的107.37 t/km2；从市域空间来看，2015年安徽省北部地区的城市碳排放总量高于南方地区；LMDI模型的因素分解表明，与2006年相比，效率因素和劳动力因素累计实现减排527.90万t，其中效率因素影响力度较强，而结构因素、经济因素总体上对累积CO2排放量变动存在正向影响，其中经济因素影响尤为突出。 　　关键词：农业碳排放；时空变化；影响因素；LMDI模型；安徽省 　　中图分类号：X196 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）21-4051-05 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.21.014 　　Spatio-temporal Variations Analysis and Influencing Factor in Carbon Emissions of Agricultural Production in Anhui Province 　　ZHANG Bo-wen1，2，CUI Lin-li3，SHI Jun2，WEI Pei-pei1，2 　　（1.Ecological Technique and Engineering College， Shanghai Institute of Technology， Shanghai 201418，China；2.Shanghai Climate Center， Shanghai 200030，China； 3.Shanghai Center for Satellite Remote Sensing and Application， Shanghai 200030，China） 　　Abstract： The research calculated the amount of agricultural carbon emission bases on five kinds of basic carbon source data in Anhui from 2006 to 2015. According to the LMDI model，an analysis on the factors that affect carbon emissions of Anhui agricultural production was made. The results showed that，the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui province presented a gradually increasing trend，increased from 3.565 3 million tons in 2006 to 4.490 3 million tons in 2015. Over the same period，the change trend of carbon emissions intensity was almost consistent with total change，increased from 87.28 t/km2 in 2006 to 107.37 t/km2 in 2015. From the point of view of urban spatial scales，the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions of the cities in northern Anhui was higher than the south. Compared with 2006，the LMDI model factor decomposition showed that efficiency factor and labor factor cut 5.279 million tons carbon emission，and the influence strength of efficiency factor was stronger. While structure factor and economy factor had positive influence on