全寿命费用的DEA优化逐步回归分析法及其应用.pdfVIP

全寿命费用的DEA优化逐步回归 分析法及其应用 秦 珩 ，张小海 (1．海 训缘肌支队，辽 大连 116018；2．海军驻上海 L。 所军代农 ， 海 200031) 卡；! 素之 化逐步川 IIJI建 实例计算 逐步IIJ『lJI Optim izedStepwiseRegressionAnalysiswithDEA andItsApplication QINHeng ZHANGXiao．hai (1．1．NavyofTrainingShipsDetachment,Dalian116018，China：2．NavyRepresentativeOfficeatNo．704ResearchInstituteof CSIC，Shanghai200031，China) Abstract：StepwiseregressionfiltersindependentvariablesWh“emodeling,whichovereomelhetillItli-co!relationbetween independentvariablesthatdisturbtheleastsquaresestimationinhtel舱 cyclecostmodeling．Theregressionstatisticalmodelnig approachestimateshteaveragetrendofhtedataessentially,whichcannotvaoidtheproblemhtatobatinhteⅥ’tongmodelac(’orc~ng tOhteeEloradatatal1．Therefore，hteoptimizedstepwiseregressionwihtDaatEnvelopmentAmsis(DEAJwasproposedto overcometheproblem．whiehcanevahmtethee~ciencyofhteadatandremovetheinq~ieienc)’adatforstepu’Pregressionmodelnig Thenewapproachcanovereometheeffectofhtedisturbedadatwhen．filteringprnicipalcomponentsnihtenidependentvariables． Comparedwiththemethodofstepu， regress~nandmultiplelineal’regression．hteprecision()fhteoptimunlstep．’iseregression wihtDEA括2．64％，n~ichishigherthanstepwiseregressionwith3．39％andmultiplelinealre~essionⅥ、j，向j．49％． Keywords： li盘c),clecostfLCC}；stepwiseregressionanalysis：dataenvelopmentanalysis(DEA)：multi—correlation lI 引言 导致最小二乘估计失效，逐步回归分析法[能对建模 素 在全寿命费用估算应用领域，多元回归分析是