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计量经济-国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析
国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析
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摘 要
自党的十一届三中全会以来，我国进入了改革开放的新时期。30多年来，我国的经济建设取得了令世人瞩目的巨大成就——国内经济持续高速增长，基本实现总体小康，人民生活水平显著提高，综合国力不断增强，国际地位也显著提高。国民经济繁荣给中国的发展带来了昂扬的生命力。而GDP是衡量一国经济增长的重要指标，因此，对国内生产总值影响因素的经济分析研究具有十分重要意义。本文采用经济增长模型和多元线性回归分析方法对1992～2011年国内生产总值的影响因素进行研究，分析了消费、财政支出和进出口对经济发展的影响，建立计量模型，寻求这些变量与GDP的数量关系，进行定量分析以及检验，并根据所得结论提出一些可行性的相关建议。
关键词：国内生产总值 消费 财政支出 净出口 计量分析
目 录
1 前言·····························································3
2 理论综述·························································3
2.1 国内生产总值···················································3
2.2 影响因素分析···················································3
3 实证模型构建·····················································4
3.1 数据收集·······················································4
3.2 模型设计·······················································5
3.2.1 建立模型·····················································5
3.2.2 模型参数估计·················································5
4 模型检验·························································6
4.1 统计推断检验···················································6
4.1.1 经济意义检验·················································6
4.1.2 R^2检验······················································6
4.1.3 t检验·························································6
4.1.4 F检验························································7
4.2 计量经济检验···················································7
4.2.1 多重共线性检验················································7
4.2.2 异方差检验···················································11
4.2.3 自相关检验···················································13
4.2.4 最终结果·····················································14
5 结论与说明·······················································14
6 实习感悟·························································15
参考文献···························································16
1 前言
“GDP”被美国商务部誉为“20世纪的伟大发明之一
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