两会周期小阳春 洪灏 2016-03-07.docxVIP

两会周期小阳春原创2016-03-07洪灝洪灝的中国市场策略洪灝的中国市场策略洪灝的中国市场策略微信号honghaochinastrategy功能介绍中国宏观策略及全球资本配置两会并无太多惊喜。房地产和大宗商品仍可以比较容易地加杠杆，也很好地解释了这些资产的相对于股票强劲的表现。由于房地产政策放松，一线和许多核心二线城市的去库存周期已经下降到12个月以下，但在其它城市仍然需要几年的时间。这些一线和核心二线城市在全国房地产投资中的占比不到40％，因此只能带动整体投资的部分恢复。尽管如此，如果这些城市的房地产投资可以回暖，那么仍然将带来增长边际上的改良。香港市场已反映了很多利空消息，但上海市场的长期下行趋势仍未终结。然而在短期交易中，情绪比现实更重要。随着大宗商品强劲反弹，市场情绪正在快速转变，并将延续反弹 - 直到市场再次面对弱增长的现实。这是今天的英文原版报告《Two-Sessions in a Cyclical Spring》Summary: The Two-Sessions delivered few upside surprises. The ease to leverage on properties and commodities explains these assets’ strong performance relative to stocks. In Tier-1 and core Tier-2 cities, property inventory has plunged below 12 months because of property stimulus, while in lower-tier cities will still take years to clear. These cities are less than 40% of the national property investment, and thus will only spur a partial recovery in overall investment. It is an improvement on the margin nonetheless.?Hong Kong has priced in a lot of bad news, yet Shanghai less so. But in short term trading, moods matter more than reality. With a strong rebound in commodities, the moods are shifting, and will likely stretch the rebound - till the reality of falling growth sets back in.------------------------------Deficit, money, FAI growth target under-whelming; but a tax cut: The Two-Sessions delivered few upside surprises. GDP growth target, while stated as a range for the first time, is 6.5%-7%; M2 growth 13%, CPI 3% and fiscal deficit 3%. Meanwhile, infrastructure spending on roads and railways will be RMB 1.65tn and 800bn, respectively, largely flat year on year. Electricity grid construction spending will also be flat at RMB 439bn. Overall, FAI will increase 10.5% in 2016, down from the 15% growth target in 2015. Fiscal deficit, while set at 3% GDP vs the 3.5% actual deficit in 2015, will likely exceed 4%. And much will come from tax reduction. These budget numbers seem tilting towards stabilizing, instead of spurring growth. Yet there appears to b