都会区大规模震灾减灾研究-国家灾害防救科技中心.PDFVIP

都會區大規模震災減災研究 - 臺灣地震災害潛勢圖製作方法之研究 Study on Strategy of the Mitigation for Large-Scale Earthquake in Urban Areas- Study of Seismic Potential Hazard Map in Taiwan 主管單位：國家災害防救科技中心 吳子修 黃明偉 劉淑燕 張芝苓 Wu, Tzu-Hsiu Huang, Ming-Wey Liu, Sheu-Yien Chang, Chi-Ling 國家災害防救科技中心地震災害防治組 摘要 台灣位處於環太平洋地震帶西側，自有文字記載以來曾經發生過多次大規模 的災害地震，造成嚴重的人員傷亡與財物損失。由於地震的大小、發生的時間和 地點、以及影響的範圍的不確定，而且產生災害的歷時很短，往往措手不及，來 不及反應使得災情擴大。然而目前地震預測之相關調查仍在持續當中，有效的地 震預測仍須有一段長時間的等待，因此本研究以簡單的數學模型，假設地震發生 機率符合對數機率密度函數，估算潛勢地震發生機率，再進一步利用加速度衰減 公式預估各地區之震動強度，作為相關單位平時防災規劃及震時緊急應變之參 考，以減少大規模地震而導致之災損。 關鍵詞：潛勢地震發生機率、地表震動強度、加速度衰減公式 Abstract Taiwan has experienced ten destructive earthquakes with magnitude exceeding 6.0 almost in every decade since the 1900s. It is extremely urgent to implement a mitigation plan specifically for large-scale earthquakes. Due to limited resources for hazard mitigation, it is suggested to set the priority first for regions with high earthquake disaster potential or areas with political and economical importance. In this study, we propose a designation mechanism of priority regions for seismic hazard mitigation. A working group for designation of priority regions is organized consisting of three forums: Fault Parameter Forum, Earthquake Potential Forum, Risk Evaluation Forum. In this study, we calculate the potential earthquake probabilities in next 10 to 50 years, respectively, from the catalogue of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). We set up the earthquake probability models, and calculate the potential earthquake probabilities for each region. Finally, we estimated the ground motion 1 pote