英文讲义：开采石油的好处——推升经济(oil spilling boost the economy).docxVIP

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英文讲义：开采石油的好处——推升经济(oil spilling boost the economy).docx

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英文讲义：开采石油的好处——推升经济(oil spilling boost the economy)

VOL.10,NO.3?APRIL2015DALLASFEDEconomic LetterPlunging Oil Prices: A Boost fortheU.S. Economy, a Jolt forTexas}ABSTRACT: Economic activity intheU.S.overallwillbenefit fromtheoilpricecollapse.Thedecline will,however,negativelyaffect oil-producing states such as Texas and NorthDakota.by Anthony Murphy, Michael Plante and MineYücelDollars perbarrelMedianforecastofBrentspotpriceinfirstquarter2015OPEC meeting (Nov.27)120110100908070605040in the second half of 2014, particularly in emerging economies that had been the prime source of new demand foroil.Chart1AsLateasNovember2014,ManyExpected HighOilPricesinEarly2015Appreciation of the dollar weighed on demand.Thegrowingimbalancebetween oil supply and demand eventually led to fallingpricesinthesecondhalfof2014.Global GrowthBoostThemacroeconomiceffectsoffalling oilpricesvarybycountryandovertime. They also depend on the persistence of thedecline.Importingcountriessuchas China,JapanandtheU.S.standtogain, whileoilexportingonessuchasRussia, SaudiArabiaandVenezuelawilllose.Jan. 2014March 2014May 2014July 2014DateofforecastSept. 2014Nov. 2014Jan. 2015Theoveralleffectontheglobaleconomyshould be positive since the economies of theoil-importingcountriesaresignificantlySOURCE:Bloomberg.largerthantheoilexporters.Chart2OilPricesPlungeinSecondHalfof2014Price perbarrel160140Brentspotpriceindollars1201008060Brentspotpriceineuros402002006200720082009201020112012201320142015SOURCE:Bloomberg.Consumptiongainsarisingfromlower oil prices will be smaller than in the past because cars and homes are more energy efficient. In terms of investment, firms in the oil and gas industry are cutting their capital expenditures, while companies that use energy intensively may invest more capital. The degree of additional investmentwilldependonthepersistence of lower oil prices. Firms dependent on energyaremorelikelytoundertakecapital projectsiftheyexpectoilpricestostabilize at$60to$70perbarrel,ratherthanrevert- ingrapidlyto$100perbarrel.Overall,the global impa