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Federal reserve policy viewed through a money supply lens.pdf
ARTICLE IN PRESS
Journal of Monetary Economics 55 (2008) 825– 834
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Monetary Economics
journal homepage: /locate/jme
Federal reserve policy viewed through a money supply lens$, $$
Ibrahim Chowdhury a,?, Andreas Schabert b,c
a Swiss National Bank, Bo¨rsenstrasse 15, 8022 Zurich, Switzerland b University of Dortmund, Germany c Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands
article info
Article history: Received 6 November 2006 Received in revised form 3 March 2008 Accepted 4 March 2008 Available online 18 March 2008
JEL classi?cation: E51 E52 E32
Keywords: Money supply Reaction functions Nonborrowed reserves Real-time data Equilibrium determinacy
abstract
Federal Reserve nonborrowed reserve supply systematically responded to changes in in?ation and in the output gap over the period 1969–2000. While the feedback from output gap is always negative, the response of money supply to changes in in?ation varies considerably across time. Nonborrowed reserves decreased with in?ation in the post1979 period and increased in the pre-1979 period. Applying a standard macro-model, the estimated reaction functions are shown to ensure equilibrium determinacy. Viewed through the money supply lens, Federal Reserve policy substantially changed over time, but has never allowed for endogenous ?uctuations, which contrasts conclusions drawn from federal funds rate analyses.
2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
This paper re-examines postwar U.S. Federal Reserve policy by looking at the supply of high-powered money, i.e. nonborrowed reserves. The analysis builds upon the fact that the supply of nonborrowed reserves rather than the federal funds rate can be directly controlled by the Federal Reserve (see Meulendyke, 1998). The main objective is to disclose whether the well-established shift in the conduct of monetary policy between the pre-1979 (pre-Volcker) and the post1979 (Volcker–Greenspan) period is mirrored in money supply adju
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