基于随机马尔可夫模型的大范围疏散的研究框架.pdfVIP

Research Framework on Large-area Evacuation based on the Stochastic Markov Model Jianfeng Li Mao Liu Urban Public Safety Research Center, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China Abstract: In the case of evacuation in particular, the decision maker must take into con- sideration many multiple organizational, technical, scientific and psychological issues. One of the most important factors influencing such decisions is the health consequences (fatalities or casualties) on the population implied by a specific evacuation policy. Al- though the larger the area of evacuation is the lower the health consequences, this policy is not optimum in all-possible situations and probably is sub optimum in all-practical cases. This is usually own to the fact that the larger the area of evacuation the slower the evacuation progress. This paper represents the basic principle and technical routes to evaluate the effectiveness of EPR based on the health consequences quantification that covers five sections. More detailed research outcomes will be submitted in other papers in the near future. Keywords: Large-area evacuation; natural disasters; industrial accidents; Stochastic Markov model 300071 : : ; ;; © Atlantis Press, 2008 749 Theory and Practice of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (RAC-08)