海水入侵数值模拟不确定因素及影响分析.docVIP

 n 海水入侵数值模拟不确定因素及影响分析# 赵坚1，赵忠伟1，付长生2* （1. 河海大学水利水电学院，南京 210098； 5 10 2. 江苏省交通规划设计院，南京 210005） 摘要：利用饱和非饱和溶质运移模型分析了内陆来水量季节正弦变化、抽水量年际变化对海 水入侵影响；分析了不同海平面上升高度和不同潮汐振幅作用对海水入侵的影响；应用析因 设计分析了水力传导系数、孔隙率和纵向弥散度不同组合下，海水入侵距离可能的分布范围。 分析结果显示：内陆来水量季节的正弦变化影响海水入侵的速度，但对渗透性相对较大的含 水层，来水量达到平衡位置时对海水入侵距离的影响不大；海平面上升短期内对海水入侵影 响不大；潮汐对近海岸区域含水层的海水入侵具有明显的回退作用；抽水量和参数的不确定 性对模拟结果影响较大，条件允许时应尽量采用不确定模型评估海水入侵影响范围。 关键词：海水入侵数值模拟；不确定因素；影响分析；析因设计 中图分类号：X523 15 Uncertainty factors and their impact on seawater intrusion simulation ZHAO Jian1, ZHAO Zhongwei1, FU Changsheng2 (1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University, 20 25 30 35 40 45 NanJing 210098; 2. Jiangsu Provincial Communication Planning and Design Institute, NanJing 210005) Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecast and the main factors which might cause great difference in prediction results. We took analysis on influence of different height of sea level rise, different amplitude of tide, seasonal variance of influx and annual variance of pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results showed that the most important factors which might cause great difference in seawater intrusion distance are variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise could be neglected in a short time simulation (ten years for instance). Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effect is obviously important in aquifer near the coastline, but the influence decrease with the distance away from the coastline and the depth away from the surface of seabed. The intrusion distance could arrive at a dynamic equilibrium with the application of sine function for seasonal effect of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecast if possible. Keywords: seawater intrusion simulation; uncertainty factors; impact analysi