Risk and uncertainty风险不确定性.pptVIP

Delivering Client Value through Uncertainty Management Tim Wells Halcrow Group Ltd Introduction PM for Halcrow Group Ltd Our Markets Selection of Projects Scope Adding Client Value through management of uncertainty What is Client Value Robust Decision Making Tour through hierarchy of case studies (coastal planning) Take Home Messages Barriers What adds value to clients Innovation Predicting their needs Compliance Technically rigorous solutions Sustainable solutions Social / Ethical / Environmental Responsibility (SEE) Manage project risks (cost and programme) Robust decisions Robust Decision Making Robust Decisions: Decisions that are not sensitive to uncertainty Stand the test of time / ‘Future Proofed’ / ‘No Regrets’ Survival Strategies Organisational level Capital investment decisions Business Strategies / Mergers Acquisitions Product development Flood Risk Management Options Appraisal Understand and Formalise Uncertainty Identify Uncertainties / Assumptions, Model Building, Defining Parameters, Uncertainty / Probabilistic Analysis, Sensitivity Testing, Supporting Decision Making Technical - Flood defences ; Rock Sizing Project - Project Risk Management Strategic – Long Term Investment Flood Defence Freeboard Traditional Design Design for Standard of Protection - 1:200 (0.5%AP) Safety margin added on to represent uncertainty Added Value Better understanding of existing performance Understand dominant parameters Provides scientific rigor - robust Better evidence for decision making Transparent (share) Potential cost savings Traditional Design Design for Standard of Protection - 1:200 (0.5%APF) Safety margin added on to represent uncertainty Rock Sizing Armouring for coastal structures Design based on empirical formulation (Van der Meer/Hudson) Many uncertain parameters / lots of correlations / expert choice Rock Sizing Armouring for coastal structures Design based on empirical formulation (Van der Meer/Hudson) Many uncertain