社会信任对地区贸易结构的影响分析.doc

社会信任对地区贸易结构的影响分析 ——基于2007年中国省级数据的实证研究 阮巧燕 黄响 中国人民大学 作者简介 阮巧燕 中国人民大学经济学院 09级国际经济与贸易本科生 黄响 中国人民大学经济学院 09级国际经济与贸易本科生 通讯作者及地址 地址：北京市中关村大街59号中国人民大学品园六楼534 100872 阮巧燕 收 电话Email：ruanqiaoyan@ 社会信任对地区贸易结构的影响分析 ——基于2007年中国省级数据的实证研究 摘 要：随着社会的发展，社会信任被越来越多的学者认为是决定一个国家经济增长和社会进步的主要的社会资本。社会信任作为对正式制度的补充，能促进契约的执行，从而降低交易成本，扩大企业对外贸易。本文在Luis Araujo and Emanuel Ornelas的信任贸易模型的基础上引入契约密集度进行扩充，论证了契约密集度高的行业的出口与该地区的社会信任息息相关，并且在社会信任较高的地区出口较多。本文利用中国2007年30个省20个行业的横截面数据进行回归分析。实证结果显示，契约密集度高的行业在社会信任度高的地区出口比重较大，拥有比较优势。因而通过加强社会信任建设，能过改善一个地区的出口结构，促进产业优化升级。这为解释我国地区经济发展差异提供了新思路，也为缩小我国东西部差异提供了新的途径。 关键词：社会信任 地区贸易结构 契约密集度 Social Trust and Regional Trade Structure Abstract: As society develops, social trust becomes widely considered as a vital social capital, which determines the economic development and social progress of a nation. Social trust, as a complement to the formal institution, promotes the implementation of contract, and thus lowers the transaction cost and expands the foreign trade. This essay, by introducing the concept of contract density into the Luis Araujo and Emanuel Ornelas model of trust trade, demonstrates that there is a close positive correlation between the level of export in industries where the contract density is high, and the level of social trust in that region. This essay adopts the cross-sectional data of twenty industries across thirty provinces in China in 2007 for regression analysis. The empirical result shows that, in regions where the level of social trust is high, industries with a high level of contract density take a higher proportion and have the comparative advantage. Hence building up social trust may improve the regional export structure, promote the optimization and upgrade of industries. This provides a new perspective in explaining the economic development discrepancy between different areas in China, and also a new way to narrow the east-west divergence. Keywords: Social Trust; Regional Trade Structure; Con