一类偏probit模型在空气质量与第二产业关系分析中的应用-application of a kind of partial probit model in the analysis of the relationship between air quality and secondary industry.docxVIP

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一类偏probit模型在空气质量与第二产业关系分析中的应用-application of a kind of partial probit model in the analysis of the relationship between air quality and secondary industry.docx

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一类偏probit模型在空气质量与第二产业关系分析中的应用-application of a kind of partial probit model in the analysis of the relationship between air quality and secondary industry

AbstractNowadays, the environment problem is getting more and more people’s attention. Undoubtedly , the environmental problem has close relation to the development of economy. This paper adopts the data on annual air quality and the second industry in GDP data of 29 key cities in 2009 and 2010. We set in annual air quality of the city to mark as the dependent variable, namely if the number of days that daily air quality of one year in city reaches the second level at least is more than 85% of the full year , the annual air quality situation is 1, otherwise 0. GDP of the second industry is the independent variable, this paper use Bayesian estimation based on the Skew Probit model of Power Normal distribution to study the relationship between the annual air quality standard and the secondary industry GDP.On the one hand, this paper sets different prior distributions of parameters in the model to select the optimal model; On the other hand, Probit model and Logistic model are also taken into account,we compare the results of above models through DIC criterion, getting the superiority of the Skew Probit model based on Power Normal Distribution .At the same time ,the relationship between the various cities of annual air quality situation and secondary industry GDP is acquired .We can forecast annual air quality situation of various cities by using the results of model regression .Keywords: Annual air quality; The second industry; Power normal distribution; Skew probit model; Bayesian regression.目录摘要....................................................................................................................IAbstract.............................................................................................................II1 引言................................................................................................................ 11.1 选题的背景及其意义 ...................................................................... 11.2 国内外研究状况...........................