公共自行车系统效率分析及管理方法建议.docVIP

公共自行车系统效率分析及管理方法建议 　　摘要：合理的布点是公共自行车系统有效运行的基础，这既需要考虑市民的需求又要受城市原有交通体系的约束，因此只有综合考虑布点的数量和结构、各点的自行车容量等因素才能有效的配置，从而提高公车的使用效率和市民出行的方便性。但是，再合理的布点都无法永久性的解决公共自行车的供需平衡问题及其与其他交通方式的契合问题。既然如此，合理的调度机制就是公共自行车系统发展过程中所必不可少的部分，那么首先就要分析其运行规律――从横向看主要是一天中流量随时间的变化规律，从纵向来看需要分析季节、假日、天气、地理等因素对其运行的影响。而在无法精确计算流量的情况下对租还车时间-数量分布的回归分析也许是能想到的最好的方法，结合相关性检验或许能得到较为令人信服的调控依据。通过以上分析，笔者提出物联网技术既能从根本上解决租还车难的问题，又符合杭州市交通发展的方向，是公车系统智能化的必然趋势。 　　关键词：效率；公共自行车；时间序列；回归分析；相关性检验；物联网 　　Abstract: the reasonable putting public bicycle system is the effective operation of the foundation, this already need to consider the needs of people and urban traffic system by the constraints, therefore only considering the number of points and structure, each point bicycle capacity to be effective factors such as the configuration, so as to improve the efficiency in the use of the public and convenience of travel. But, again the reasonable stationing cannot permanent solution of public bicycle supply and demand balance problems and other of the transportation problem with. In that case, the reasonable scheduling mechanism is public bicycle system development process are an indispensable part of, then analyzes the operation rule first to be--from horizontal look at the main is a day flow variation law with time, from vertical to see need analysis, holiday season, the weather, the geography factors on the influence of the operation. And in not precise flow of rent car time-of the distribution of the number of regression analysis is perhaps the best way to think of, combined with the correlation inspection may get more convincing regulation basis. Through the above analysis, the author puts forward that can both networking technologies from the fundamental solution to rent car difficult problem, but also to hangzhou city traffic the direction of development, is the inevitable trend of intelligent bus system. 　　Keywords: efficiency; Public bike; Time series; Regression analysis; Correlation inspection; Content networking