基于系统动力学的区域运输多主体利益协调Systemdynamicsmodel.PDF

基于系统动力学的区域运输多主体利益协调 1,2 1+ 2 刘 沛 ，穆 东 ，夏 辉 (1.北京交通大学 经济管理学院，北京 100044；2.山东大学（威海） 商学院，山东 威海 264209) 摘要：为了解决区域运输系统存在的货主超载运输导致的与公路运营方利益冲突问题， 建立了基于系统动力学的政策评价模型，模型进一步考虑车辆严格限载和铁路介入等政策 对货主时间成本的影响，通过模拟公路的货流量、路面磨损、运输能力、运输时间等环节 间的互动与反馈，分析各主体利益变化机理并给出有效策略协调各方利益。以曹妃甸至唐 山铁矿石运输系统为例，仿真结果表明，单纯的限载政策造成的货主运输成本和时间成本 的增加大大高于公路运营方维护成本的降低，无法协调双方利益；通过建设铁路分流铁矿 石，当铁路等级达到Ⅱ级时能同时降低双方成本，且双方累计节省的成本大于铁路建设投 资，是公路严格限载下协调双方利益的有效政策。 关键词：运输；系统动力学；超载治理；政策；利益协调 中图分类号：U116. 1；N945.12 文献标识码：A System dynamics model for coordination among stakeholders of regional freight transportation system LIU Pei1,2，MU Dong1+ ，XIA Hui2 (1.School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China；2. School of Business,Shandong University, Weihai,Weihai 264209,China) Abstract: To solve the problem of profit conflict between freight owners and highway operator which is caused by overload trucking, a system dynamics model was established for policy evaluation. By simulating interactions and feedbacks among transport issues such as freight volume, pavement damage, highway transport capacity and transport time under different policy scenarios, mechanism of profit conflict was analyzed and effective policy was given. Simulation runs were conducted for the case of the iron ore transportation system from Caofeidian to Tangshan. The results show that limiting vehicle loads is not an effective policy because the increase of transport cost and time cost of freight owners caused by this policy is much higher than the decrease of pavement maintenance cost of highway operator. It i