multiyear climate variability and dengue—el ni？o southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in puerto rico, mexico, and thailand a longitudinal data analysis多年气候变化和dengue-el倪 o振荡南部,天气,和登革热发病率在波多黎各,墨西哥,泰国一个纵向数据分析.pdfVIP

˜ Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Nino Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis 1,2 3 2 Michael A. Johansson *, Derek A. T. Cummings , Gregory E. Glass 1 Dengue Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America, 2 W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America, 3 Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America Abstract Background: The mosquito-borne dengue viruses are a major public health problem throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Changes in temperature and precipitation have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle ˜ and may thus play a role in changing incidence levels. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a multiyear climate driver of local temperature and precipitation worldwide. Previous studies have reported varying degrees of association between ENSO and dengue incidence. Methods and Findings: We analyzed the relationship between ENSO, local weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand using wavelet analysis to identify time- and frequency-specific association. In Puerto Rico, ENSO was transiently associated with temperature and dengue incidence on multiyear scales. However, only l