a large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality邻国之间巨大的温度变化,天会增加死亡的风险.pdfVIP

A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality 1 1 1 2 1 1 Yuming Guo *, Adrian G. Barnett , Weiwei Yu , Xiaochuan Pan , Xiaofang Ye , Cunrui Huang , Shilu Tong1* 1 School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, 2 Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China Abstract Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3uC in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3uC was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged ,65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3uC was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for