交通《Integrated Urban Models》4 Freight-Model-Application.pdfVIP

Estimating the Effects of Highway Infrastructure Failure on Freight Flows for the U.S. Highway Network Qisheng Pan Professor and Chair, Department of Urban Planning and Environmental Policy School of Public Affairs, Texas Southern University, Houston, Texas Visiting Chair Professor, School of Urban Design, Wuhan University Chair of Board of Directors, International Association for China Planning Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School June 14, 2015 1. Introduction • Demands for freight transportation have increased dramatically in the U.S. • Highways are a dominant mode of freight movement and moved about 40.0 percent of total revenue ton-miles of freight in 2002 (USDOT 2004). • However, highway infrastructures, especially highway bridges and tunnels, are vulnerable to disruption or structure deficiency via deterioration, natural or manmade disasters. • An essential element of an adaptable and resilient freight transportation system is to identify and analyze key vulnerabilities in the freight system. 2 • A regional freight transportation model has been developed and implemented to analyze the performance of regional transportation system and the economic impacts of hypothetical terrorist attacks or natural disasters by Gordon and Pan (2001), Pan (2006), and Giuliano et al. (2007), etc. • This study extends the model to establish baseline freight flows in the national highway network and examine the effects of highway bridge and tunnel failures on freight flows on the national highway network. • This is the network modeling component of a broad transportation and economic impact modeling project – Trans