四川省退耕还林碳汇潜力预测研究.pdfVIP

2008年1月 防 护 林 科 技 Protection Forest Science and Technology No 第1期(总82期) ． 1(Sum No．82) 文章编号：1005-5215(2008)O1—0001—03 四川省退耕还林碳汇潜力预测研究 陈艺齐，蔡丽莎 (西南林学院环境科学与工程系，云南昆明650224) 摘 要：通过调研四川省退耕还林工程实施现状，建立模型，预测未来60 a四川省退耕还林工程的碳汇潜力。采用 经由森林清查人工林历史生长数据拟合的里查德方程(Richards equation)进行分树种生长量预测，依据文献调研所 得有关参数计算相应的生物碳储量，结合碳排放、碳基线和碳泄漏的分析与估算，得出四川省退耕还林工程未来60 a碳汇量。 关键词：退耕还林；碳汇；碳排放；碳基线；碳泄漏 中图分类号：X171．1 文献标识码：A Carbon Sequestration Potential of Returning Farmland to Forest in Sichuan Province CHEN Yi—qi，CM Li—sha (Insti．ofEnvironmental Science and Engineering。Southwest Forestry Univ．，Kunming650224。Yunnan，China) Abstract：Through investigations of the status of implementing returning farmland to forest in Sichuan Province，this paper sets up model and predicts the carbon sequestration potential(CSP)resulted from returning farmland to forest in Sichuan in next 60 years．The model to calculate CSP has been set and the Richards Equation simulated from the historical growth data of plantation based on forests inventory is used to calculate the wood store of each tree species．The carbon stock in living bi— omass has been calculated from wood store by drawing into some proper parameter．Final outcome shows the CSP under re— turning farmland to forest in Sichuan Province in next 60 years by combining the consideration of carbon emission，carbon baseline and carbon leakage Key words：returning farmland to forest；carbon sequestration：carbon emission；carbon baseline；carbon leakage 因人为因素而导致的全球气候变化愈来愈受到 (草)32．005万hin 。 人们的关注。保护现有森林和增加森林植被，已成 1．2 未来趋势 为增强陆地碳吸收、减少向大气碳排放的重要措施。 现对2007--2010年四川省逐年实施造林面积