一类媒介传染病模型建立和的分析.docx

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M 5 ( 2 x-(2줥  ?  ??§′  3·  “  ·  e§?á?1 ??¤  ¤J??¥?252ú^  SN  § ???·1ù|?? 8N?2uL? L ‰?¤Jé ? ????-? z ?ú8N§ t?3?¥±2(·aI2 (2 {?I?d ?ú ????\?μ  F?μ u?  ??|^  `2  )¥ ??k +!|^? ?? 5?§ù¥·)μ ? k  +!?·kü€x  ?  ??  ??E?? ?  ?±?^K! ?ù§E???E??  ·?  ??? ?  ?#N?  ??  ?/ ? ? ?±?a 6·8 §E?Rxú ?? ??? ? ?±úù? ??  ü?ü?SN£ —? ??3)— ??d5?¤ \  ?μ “\?μ  F?μ F?μ ¥  ? ?? 8 1 1 i ·  ? ? ¥  ? ??  ? ? á? D/????′|^???·{ ??;? uDL§§y?ù615?úuDa3§ ??;?61 ?ú…??§?|éù?1y“ú?? ·`ü? ?¥·? éüZ?à?ó?áê? .?k§·??? ‰ì·~ê?)§x0 ·LogisticO· ??? .§$^e?“Y . ? 2)ê§y2 2?: ·35ú?ü-?5§?…‰? ·?|·3 ^?ùg§·? ‰ì·LogiticO· ??? .§·?é§ 2?: ?1?1 ??§?…é? ?ê‰ ˉa5??§3, ?§Ytéu;? ??? ?^· §·??? ?k??D/? ??? .§? ? 2?: ·35ú-?5§?…‰? ??2?:? ·?|·3 ^? …cμüZ?à?ó?? 2)ê?-?5?????2?:? ·?| 1 I · ¥  ? ??  ? ? ABSTRACT Epidemic dynamics is a good method to prevent the disease. Epidemic dynamics study the development process of the disease, predict the trends of the disease, ?nd out the key factors of disease prevalence through the use of dynamics method. We establish mathematics model of West Nile Virus in this paper. Firstly, we discuss the model with constant birth rate for host and the Logistic growth for mosquito, get the basic reproduction number, prove the existence and the stability of the equilibria and give the condition of the existence of backward bifurcation. Secondly, we study the model with the Logistic growth for host, discuss the existence of the equilibria, further more, perform parameter sensitivity analysis which plays a role in the control of disease in some extent. Lastly, we study the model with general incidence function, analysis the existence and sta- bility of equilibria and give the condition of the existence of multiple endemic equilibria and backward bifurcation. Key wordsμWest Nile Virus; The basic reproduction number; Stability anal- ysis; Multiple equilibria; Backward bifurcation 1 II · ¥  ? ??  ? ? 1?ù  úó 1.1  ???? x0D/?(vect

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