微观经济学—像经济学家一样思考剖析.ppt

像经济学家一样思考Thinking Like anEconomist 中南大学商学院国际经济与贸易教研室 目录 Main Contents 经济学：科学研究 Economics as Science 经济学：政策指导 Economics as Policy 一、经济学：科学研究(Economics as Science) 科学的研究方法(The Scientific Method) 观察，理论，进一步观察Observation, Theory, and More Observation 观察(To Observe) 著名例子Examples 牛顿的观察:苹果落到地上Newton: Apply falling from the tree 科斯的观察:许多交易在企业内而非市场中进行Coase: Many transactions are within the firms 观察的多种途径(Many ways to observe) Experiences, investigation, media Literature 值得注意的倾向(Be careful) Direct vs. indirect Hot topics vs. general issues 一、经济学：科学研究(Economics as Science) 科学的研究方法(The Scientific Method) 理论分析：解释现实经济的运作 Theoretical analysis: explain how real world operates. 讲逻辑 Logic 经验（或实证）分析：用数据检验理论 Empirical analysis: analyze data to test the theories. 讲证据 Evidence 一、经济学：科学研究(Economics as Science) 科学的研究方法(The Scientific Method) 研究方法上像物理学Methodology likes physics 理论(theoretical) 经验实证(empirical) 经济学是社会科学It is a social science 社会的复杂性complexity 有限的可控实验limited controlled experiment 经济学是科学：警惕两种倾向Be aware of two extremes 数学无用mathematics is useless 数学至上mathematics is everything 一、经济学：科学研究(Economics as Science) 假设的作用(The Role of Assumptions) 作出假设是为了便于理解 Economists make assumptions in order to make the world easier to understand. 科学思维中的“艺术”成分是确定作出什么假设 The art in scientific thinking is deciding which assumptions to make. 作出不同的假设用来回答不同的问题 Economists use different assumptions to answer different questions. 一、经济学：科学研究(Economics as Science) 关于假设和结论On Assumptions and Conclusions 假设是理论（即逻辑推理）的起点 Assumptions are the starting point of theory 假设越接近现实越好吗？Is an assumption that is more realistic necessarily better? 假设应尽可能少Fewer assumptions, the better 理论结论用经验数据来检验的含义Themeaning of empirical tests of a theory: 当经验数据与理论结论不一致时，理论被证明不成立（即“证伪”）A theory is disapproved if evidence is inconsistent with the theory (to falsify a theory) 经济数据与理论一致时，我们说理论没有被推翻，但不能说理论被“证明”了A theory is supported by the evidence if evidence is consistent with the theory, but the theory is not proved by the evidence. 一、经济学：科学研究(Econ