人民币国际化潜力研究的论文%3a基于动态数值模拟分析.pdfVIP

人民币国际化潜力研究：基于动态数值模拟分析 内容提要：本文在综合考察货币国际化影响因素的基础上，通过反经济事实动态数值模 拟的方法评价了人民币成为国际化货币的潜力，并检验了人民币在亚洲地区的影响力。实证 研究表明，经济规模、金融市场的深度、流动性和开放性、币值的稳定性和网络外部性等因 素是决定一国货币在各央行外汇储备金中占比的关键因素。在对实证模型进行灵敏性检验和 样本内预测的基础上，结合七种情景假设，考察了人民币作为国际化货币在各央行外汇储备 金中的可能占比；实证结果表明，在2012 年至2020 年间人民币作为各央行储备货币的平均 占比将达到 17.1%～18.0%。除此之外，自人民币汇率改革实施后，人民币在亚洲货币区的 影响力不断被刷新，影响因子在0.28～1.23 之间。 关键词：人民币国际化 数值模拟 外汇储备金 样本内预测 A Study of the RMB as a Potential International Currency: Base on Dynamic Numerical Simulation Analysis Lu Jun and Xiong Yan Fei (Lingnan College, Sun Yat-Sen University) Abstract: On the basis of investigating the factors that influence currency international, assessing the potential of the RMB as an international currency by counter-factual Dynamic Numerical Simulation, and examining the role of RMB in Asia. Analysis shows that economic size, a deep, liquid and open financial market, stable value of the currency and Network externalities which determine the proportion of the currency in Foreign Exchange Reserves of Monetary authorities. In addition to, on the basis of Sensitivity test and in-sample forecast, integrate seven Scene hypotheses; examine the possibillity share of RMB in Foreign Exchange Reserves. Empirical facts reach that the possibillity share of RMB in Foreign Exchange Reserves will reach to 17.1%～18.0% between 2012 and 2020. Furthermore, since RMB exchange rate reform has been put into effect, the impact of RMB in Asia will be refreshed over and over, Impact factor reach to 0.28～1.23. Key Words: RMB Internationalization, Numerical Simulation, Foreign Exchange Reserves, In-Sample Forecast 陆军，金融学教授，博士生导师，中山大学岭南学院副院长，金融系主任，中山大学银行研 究中心主任。 通讯地址：广州市海珠区新港西路135 号中山大学岭南学院 电话： 020 传真：020 邮编：510275 Email: lnsluj@; lujun.sysu@ 熊衍飞，中山大学岭南学院金融学博士研究生，研究方向：金融市场与宏观经济，货币理论 与政策 电话：150