水资源安全评价研究及其实证分析.pdf

析了上海水资源安全的现状。首先文章从水体、水量、水质及水资源 特点等方面对上海水资源的现状做了定性的概括与分析。其次，结合 上海的具体特征，文章通过一系列指标筛选原则给出了上海水资源安 全评价体系。随后，在具体研究我国及上海的具体发展情况的基础上， 文章结合国际惯例和专家评定的结果，得到了各评价指标的对应阀 值。最后代入上海1999年至2003年的五年时间序列及全国2003年 的截面数据，从而得到了上海近年的水资源安全状况及其变化趋势和 上海与全国2003年水资源安全状况的总体及细化指标的比较。 第四章，本文从需水管理和供水管理两个角度给出了一些较为重 要的、操作性较强的保障水资源安全的对策建议。需水管理是依据已 有的供水条件，通过对水资源的优化配置和合理利用，来解决水资源 的供需矛盾，因此比供水管理更符合可持续发展的要求。但目前阶段 需水管理尚未成熟，因此一些成本相对较低，效果直接明显的供水管 理项目亦应成为需水管理为主的水资源管理体系中有效的补充组成 部分。 关键词：水资源，安全，指标体系 WATER RESOURCE SECURITY RESEARCH AND EMPIRISTIC ANALYSIS ABSTRACT Water is a kind of special and irreplaceable resource closely linked with development of country and living of people. With growing globalization of economy, resource utility and entironment problem, water resource security problem, chief problem of global resource environment in 21st century, stands out increasingly which restricts the sustainable development of society and threats the existing and developing of human being directly. In China, with the shortage of water resource, deterioration of water environment and high frequency of water disaster, water security problem becomes one of the key factors blocking sustainable development of st society and economy of our country in 21 century. Therefore, the first chapter of this paper analyzes the meaning of water resource security and its close connection with sustainable development at large. For evaluating water resource security and diagnosing existent problems, it is necessary that establish water resource security index system. A quantitative evaluation system can pretty truly reflect water security status quo o