韩国央行-极端天气加剧的通货膨胀影响：持续性和非线性的证据（英）-2025.9.pdfVIP

No.2025-25BANKOFKOREA

BOKISSUENOTE

September8,2025

TheInflationaryImpactofIntensifyingExtremeWeather

:EvidenceonPersistenceandNonlinearity

Jung-InYeon

Economist,ClimateRiskAnalysisTeam,

OfficeofSustainableGrowth,BankofKorea

Tel.02-750-6898

yeonjungin11@bok.or.kr

1.Thisstudyexaminestheimpactofweathershocks*ondomesticconsumerprice

inflation,inlightofgrowingconcernsaboutinflationuncertaintydrivenbyrecent

extremeweathereventssuchasheatwavesandheavyrainfall.Unlikepreviousstudies

thatprimarilyexaminedtheeffectsofgradualclimatechange(e.g.,increasesinaverage

annualtemperature),thisstudydirectlyevaluatestheeffectsofextremeandabnormal

weathereventsandprojectsfutureinflationdynamicsaccordingly.

*Weathershocksareclassifiedintohigh-temperatureandprecipitationshocks,definedasdeviationsof

themonthlymaximumtemperatureandthemonthlymaximumone-dayprecipitationfromtheir

respectivelong-termmonthlyaverages.Amongthese,instanceswherethemagnitudeofdeviationfalls

withinthetopfivepercentofeachvariable’sdistributionarereferredtoasextremeweatherevents.

2.AnalyticalfindingsindicatethattheeffectsofweathershocksinKoreaarenotconfined

totheshorttermbutpersistoveranextendedperiodofmorethan12months.The

impactofa1°Chigh-temperatureshockontheconsumerpriceinflationpersistedformore

than24months(anaverageincreaseof0.055percentagepointsover24months),whilethe

impactofa10mmprecipitationshockcontinuedformorethan15months(anaverage

increaseof0.033percentagepointsover15months