国会预算办公室-截至2025年10月29日，三种情景下政府关门对经济影响的定量分析（英）-2025.pdfVIP

CONGRESSIONALBUDGETOFFICEPhillipL.Swagel,Director

U.S.Congress

Washington,DC20515

October29,2025

HonorableJodeyArrington

Chairman

CommitteeontheBudget

U.S.HouseofRepresentatives

Washington,DC20515

Re:AQuantitativeAnalysisoftheEffectsoftheGovernmentShutdownon

theEconomyUnderThreeScenarios,asofOctober29,2025

DearMr.Chairman:

YouhaveaskedtheCongressionalBudgetOfficeforinformationaboutthe

effectsontheeconomyofthelapseindiscretionaryappropriations(often

calledagovernmentshutdown)thatbeganonOctober1,2025.Thisletter

presentsestimatesoftheeffectsunderthreescenarios:ashutdownthatends

afterfourweeks(onOctober29),onethatendsaftersixweeks(on

November12),andonethatendsaftereightweeks(onNovember26).1

InCBO’sassessment,theshutdownwilldelayfederalspendingandhavea

negativeeffectontheeconomythatwillmostly,butnotentirely,reverse

oncetheshutdownends.Theagencyestimatesthatrealgrossdomestic

product(GDP),whichhasbeenadjustedtoremovetheeffectsofinflation,

willbelowerinthefourthquarterof2025thanitwouldhavebeeninthe

absenceofashutdown.2Dependingonitslength,thegovernmentshutdown

willreduceannualizedrealGDPgrowthinthatquarterby1.0to

2.0percentagepoints.Aftertheshutdown,realGDPwillbetemporarily

higherthanitwouldhavebeenotherwise.Althoughmostofthedeclinein

realGDPwillberecoveredeventually,CBOestimatesthatbetween

$7billionand$14billion(in2025dollars)willnotbe.

1CBOpreviouslyprovidedqualitativeinformationabouttheeffectsofthegovernmentshutdown.

SeeCongressionalBudgetOffice,lettertotheHonorableJodeyArringtonprovidingaqualitative

analysisoftheeffectsofthegovernmentshutdownontheeconomyasofOctober17,

2025(October17,