nber -The Largest Insurance Expansion in History - Saving One Million Lives Per Year in China-此为英文文档.docx
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NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES
THELARGESTINSURANCEEXPANSIONINHISTORY:SAVINGONEMILLIONLIVESPERYEARINCHINA
JonathanGruber
MengyunLin
JunjianYi
WorkingPaper31423
/papers/w31423
NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH
1050MassachusettsAvenue
Cambridge,MA02138
July2023
WearegratefultoBenOlkenandparticipantsatBostonUniversity,Harvard,andMITHealthEconomicsSeminarandChineseUniversityofHongKongEconomicsSeminarforhelpfulcomments.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.
?2023byJonathanGruber,MengyunLin,andJunjianYi.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including?notice,isgiventothesource.
TheLargestInsuranceExpansioninHistory:SavingOneMillionLivesPerYearinChinaJonathanGruber,MengyunLin,andJunjianYi
NBERWorkingPaperNo.31423
July2023
JELNo.H4,I13
ABSTRACT
TheNewCooperativeMedicalScheme(NCMS)rolledoutinChinafrom2003-2008providedinsuranceto800millionruralChinese.Wecombineaggregatemortalitydatawithindividualsurveydata,andidentifytheimpactoftheNCMSfromprogramrolloutandheterogeneityacrossareasintheirruralshare.Wefindthattherewasasignificantdeclineinaggregatemortality,withtheprogramsavingmorethanonemillionlivesperyearatitspeak,andexplaining78%oftheentireincreaseinlifeexpectancyinChinaoverthisperiod.Weconfirmthesemortalityeffectsusingmicro-dataonmortality,otherhealthoutcomes,andutilization.
JonathanGruber
DepartmentofEconomics,E52-434
MIT
77MassachusettsAvenue
Cambridge,MA0213
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