工程项目进度风险分析与管理方法研究-水工结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACT Schedule, quality and cost are three main control objectives of the project, in which schedule control has attracted much attention as the control key. Schedule uncontrolled will affect the other two goals, which may not only result in a huge waste of social resources, but also the quality of the project will be subject to different degrees of impact. So it is particular important to do risk analysis and management for the large-scale projects. There are many project schedule risk analysis methods currently, but none of them consider two types of correlation comprehensively and accurately in actual projects——correlation between the activities duration and correlation between risk factors, and none research on the issue of risk sensitivity for the entire project or various activities. Moreover, the current commonly used critical index can’t reflect the criticality of the activities properly such as ACP, SI and ACI. Aimed at these problems, the thesis makes a deep study on risk analysis method of the project schedule and activities’ critical computing, the main contents and achievements of the study include: Study on schedule risk analysis method considering two types of correlation The thesis proposed a schedule risk analysis method based on AHP and Monte Carlo techniques. This method can not only obtain the distribution of the entire project duration, and then carry on schedule risk analysis, but also can analysis the sensitivity of entire project and activities for different risk factors, which will make it easy for the project manager to do targeted risk management and guide the detailed implementation schedule effectively. activities’ critical index Aim at the defects that currently widely used of activities’ critical index such as ACP, SI and ACI, the thesis proposes a new method to calculate the activities’ critical index that taking into account the fluctuation of activities’ duration, activities’ impact on the project schedule and the status of the a