Real Estate Appreciaton Trends in Florida在佛罗里达州的房地产升值趋势.pptVIP

Real Estate Appreciation Trends in Florida: June 2006 Update Stanley D. Smith SunTrust Chair of Banking and Professor of Finance University of Central Florida Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida 53rd Annual Convention June 23, 2006 What is really happening in real estate markets?Is it sunny, cloudy, or is the sky falling?It depends on the source of information and how it is provided! Sources of Recent Information MBA (Mortgage Originations; Refinance and Purchase Applications Index) U.S. Census/HUD - New Residential Sales (Median Average Sales Prices; Months’ Supply of New Houses; Months For Sale Since Completion); New Residential Construction Permits NAHB (NAHB/WF HMI, Building Permits) Yahoo!Finance (Builders’ Stock Prices) NAR (Median Sales Prices for Existing Single-Family Homes) OFHEO (Price Changes for Homes Financed by Conforming Mortgages by FNMA and FHLMC) U. S. New Homes Sold (April 2006) Median Price = 238,500; Average = 298,300 Yearly Change Median Sales Price 0.93% Average Sales Price 3.18% Quarterly Change Median Sales Price -2.61% Average Sales Price -0.90% Source: U.S. Census and HUD NAHB/WF Housing Market Index June HMI (released 6/19/06), 3 components HMI is builder sentiment of sales conditions and may vary more than market activity Good 50, Poor 50, and Fair = 50 National Overall = 42; South Overall = 49 (Northeast 40, Midwest 25, West 61) 1. Current Sales = 47 2. Sales Next 6 Months = 50 3. Traffic of Prospective Buyers = 29 New Housing Permits New Residential Construction (U.S. Census HUD, 6/20/06) Single-Family about 80% of Permits (000s) May 2005 Natl.= 193.1; South = 89.3 March 2006 Natl.= 191.3; South = 98.7 April 2006 Natl.= 164.9; South = 81.6 May 2006 Natl.= 182.7; South = 88.1 Homebuilder Stock Prices (6 mo.) Homebuilder Stock Prices (2 yr.) NAR Q1 2006 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas- Annual Change (1) High to Low Orlando 34.0% Gainesv