ip网络流量研究预测工具的设计与实现-design and implementation of ip network traffic research and prediction tool.docx

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ip网络流量研究预测工具的设计与实现-design and implementation of ip network traffic research and prediction tool.docx

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ip网络流量研究预测工具的设计与实现-design and implementation of ip network traffic research and prediction tool

AbstractWiththerapiddevelopmentofIPnetworkandInternetapplications,therearemoreandmorerequirementsfromtheInternetServiceProviders(ISPs)tothegrainertrafficmanagement.Ononeside,thelargeamountofrealtrafficdatahastobeprocessedandtransferredtomeaningfulnetworkinformation,suchastheutilizationratiooflink.Ontheotherside,thefuturetrendofthetrafficisalsorequiredforthefurthernetworkplanningwork.Tomeetwiththeserequirements,ananalysisandpredictiontoolisdesignedforIPbackbonenetworktrafficinthisthesis.Thistoolincludefivecomponents,i.e.,datapreprocessing,nodetrafficanalysis,nodetrafficprediction,trafficmatrixanalysisandtrafficmatrixprediction.Thetooltakesthetrafficmatrixda-tafromcurrentnetworkasmainanalysisdata,nodetrafficwhichmeasurebySNMPfromnetworkasauxiliarydata.Inthemoduleofnodetrafficanalysis,thefunctionsofnodetrafficmodeling,trafficdecomposing,trafficcomparing,andlinkutilizationcalculationareprovided.Inthemod-uleofnodetrafficprediction,thepredictionmodelsofARIMAandmultiple-variableregressareprovided.Inthemoduleoftrafficmatrixanalysis,theobservationsofnodetrafficmatrixinkeyelementsandfanoutelementsareprovided.Inthemoduleoftrafficmatrixprediction,thepredic-tionresultsofnodetrafficcanbedispatchedtothematrixelements,aswellasavisualdisplayincomparingnodein-trafficandout-traffic,linkloadutilizationandtrafficgeneratedordestinedtonodes.ThetrafficanalysisandpredictiontoolinthisthesishasbeentestedbycurrentnetworktrafficdataprovidingbyacertainISPinChina.ThetoolcanimporttheoriginaltrafficdatacollectedfromrealIPnetwork.Italsosupportstheoutputofgraphicalreportsoftheanalysisresult.Ingeneral,thetestresultsshowsthatthistoolcouldprovideascientificreferencefornetworkmaintenanceandnetworkplanning,andmakethepositivebeneficialeffects.Keywords:NetworkTraffic,TrafficMatrix,TrafficPrediction,TrafficAnalysis目录摘要IAbstractII1绪论1.1研究背景及意义(1)1.2课题及研究内容(2)1.3论文组织结构(3)2相关技术概述2.1流量矩阵介绍(4)2.2流量预测算法(5)2.3流量矩阵估算算法(9)2.4流量矩阵预测算法(11)2.5本章小结(13)3IP网络流量分析预测工具的设计3.1需求分析(14)3.2系统体系架构设计(15)3.3数据结构设计(17)3.4输入与输出模块设计(18