家电行业：行业增长趋缓，龙年还看龙头.doc

家电行业：行业增长趋缓，龙年还看龙头 Appliances industry growth slowed, Choosing leading enterprises in Year of the dragon 2012 年年度投资策略 2012 Annual Investment Strategy 渐飞研究报告 - //bg.panlv.net 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 //.cindasc 资料来源：信达证券研发中心 注：行业规模以申万分类为准，信达 覆盖包括了节能照明行业 资料来源：信达证券研发中心 看淡 看好 中性 2012 年年度投资策略 2012 年 2 月 10 日 本期内容提要： 2011年家电行业受国内家电产品销售不顺、房地产限购、 家电下乡政策逐渐退出和国际经济环境恶化等影响，家电行业景气度逐渐下降，行业增长呈前高后低的走势。 分行业来看，白电、厨卫、小家电增速下滑明显，黑电保持相对稳定增速。家电行业经过将近 2年的高速发 展，整个行业已经进入一个新的调整期，我们判断在 2012年第一季度行业增速将会触底，随着毛利率的提升 和国内需求回暖，下半年行业增速将会有所恢复。 ?? 内需方面， 经过我们的初步统计，家电下乡政策拉动需求的影响从大到小的分别是电冰箱、彩电、洗衣机和空调；以旧 换新政策拉动需求的影响从大到小的分别是彩电、空调、洗衣机和电冰箱；商品房住宅销售面积增速与电冰 箱和空调增速的相关性最大；外需方面，电冰箱和空调对欧美出口的比重相对较大。未来关注节能环保电器 和高端电器，同时注意新消费刺激政策推出。 上游材料价格和人力成本大幅上升，房地产销售面积严重萎缩，新消费刺激政策力度低于预期， 欧债危机影响扩大，人民币升值的风险。 2012年家电行业将进入一轮新的调整期，增速趋缓，行业还在等待未来需求回暖， 我们维持之前的“中性”评级。2012年关注产品升级、国内需求变化和新消费政策出台，选择竞争力强、盈 利能力突出、品牌知名度高、估值水平较低的龙头企业，白电的格力电器和青岛海尔，黑电的海信电器，厨 卫小家电的老板电器，LED节能照明的阳光照明。 重点公司盈利预测与评级 资料来源：wind，信达证券研发中心预测 注：股价为 2012 年 2 月 8日收盘价 本期内容提要: 渐飞研究报告 - //bg.panlv.net 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 //.cindasc 目录 表目录 ······································································································贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩············· 1 2011 ····································································· 2 2012 ··············· 3 ··········································· 3 ································································贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩?·············· 5 ·············· 7 2012 ····································· 7 2012 ·································· 10 ················································ 12 2012 ··················· 13 2012 ·············贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩··· 7 2012 ··· 13 ························································ 14 ···················································· 16 : LED · 17 Q1 10% ············································· 17 ··············贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩贩····················· 19 ·