高盛broad_dollar_weakness_on_the_horizon_.pdfVIP

Global Viewpoint Issue No: 10/19 September 8, 2010 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research at https://360. Broad Dollar Weakness on the Horizon Thomas Stolper We have seen new and wide-ranging evidence of continued structural weaknesses in the US. This thomas.stolper@ will likely depress US growth in the foreseeable future and lead to more Quantitative Easing by +44 (0)20 7774 5183 the Fed. Combined with our above-consensus views for the rest of world, a scenario of US decoupling, improving risk sentiment and broad US Dollar weakness remains the most likely Fiona Lake outcome in the medium term, but with important regional variations. In a context of USD fiona.lake@ +852 2978-6088 weakness, we focus on the EUR, JPY, Commodity currencies and the CNY. In the very near term, however, macroeconomic and political uncertainties continue to dominate Europe, the US and Themistoklis M. Fiotakis Asia. During that period we may see more temporary USD strength versus most other themistoklis.fiotakis@ currencies, including the EUR. Only those currencies negatively correlated to risk sentiment, +44 (0)20 7552 2901 such as the JPY, are likely to do well in the near term. We are keeping our forecasts unchanged at EUR/$ 1.22, 1.35 and 1