项目宣传画册-国家气候中心.PDF

项目意义 Signifi cance of the Project 1 气候系统模式是目前 可用于全面开展气候系统 多圈层相互作用研究、理 解其演变规律和预测预估 其变化的最合理的工具。 气候系统模式研发和应用 是气候和气候变化科学研 究和应对气候变化的重要 公元1856－2003年全球地表温度变化 基础性工作。模式分辨率 Global surface air temperature change during 1856-2003 是衡量气候系统模式能力或发展潜力的一个重要标尺。用于IPCC第1-4次评估报告的 模式分辨率不断提高。提高模式分辨率是提高气候系统模式对东亚气候模拟和预估能 力的迫切需求。 模式的不确定性问题是目前气候变化争论的焦点问题之一。模式评估既是认识气 候系统模式不确定性的科学需求，是提高应对气候变化能力的重要工作；又是完善气 候系统模式的最有效方法，是现代模式发展必不可少的环节。 “高分辨率气候系统模式的研制和评估”是我国应对气候变化整体工作中亟待加 强的重要基础性研究工作，是提 升我国气候变化国际话语权的重 要科技支撑，也是我国社会经济 可持续发展的迫切需求。开展此 项工作意义重大！ C l i mat e sy s t e m mo d e ls are the most reasonable tools for researching the interactions between various components of the earth system, understanding 全球变暖对国民经济的可能影响 Possible influence of global warming on national economy 分辨率是衡量气候系统模式能力或发展潜力的一个重要标尺 Model resolution is an important scale to value the climate system model and its development potential and predict ing climate behav iors and its change by now. Development and application of climate system models are important basic works in researching on climate and climate change, and addressing to climate change. The model resolution is an important scale to value the capability of one climate system model or its development potential, with the persistently increasing resolution from first to fourth reports of IPCC. The models with increasing model resolution are the urgent demand for modeling and predicting East Asian climate. The issue of model uncertainties is one of the debate focuses concerning climate change. The model validation is not only the scientific demand for understanding climate system uncertainties, the important work for enhancing the capability of addressing climate change, but also the most efficient way to improve climate model, and as well a