我国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素的实证研究.docxVIP

我国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影 我国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险 影响因素的实证研究 马 宇 内容提要 :次贷危机的爆发提醒人们重新认识个人住房抵押贷款违约带来的风险 。现阶段 ,我国商业银行已 经发放了大量个人住房抵押贷款 ,那么 ,哪些因素可能对我国个人住房抵押贷款违约产生显著影响 ,这是需要我们 深入研究的问题 。本文在实地调研的基础上 ,利用 637 组数据 ,对影响我国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的因素进行 了实证分析 。研究结果发现 ,借款人受教育程度越高 ,工作行业稳定程度和垄断程度越高 ,违约率越低 ; 借款人购 买住房面积越大 ,每月偿还贷款金额与家庭收入之比越高 ,违约率越高 ; 本地人比外地人违约率高 ; 购买现房借款 人比购买期房借款人的违约率高 。对违约影响较大的因素依次是住房面积 、月还款额占家庭收入比 、是否期房 、受 教育程度 。 关键词 :个人住房抵押贷款 ;违约风险 ;实证研究 文章编号 :1002 - 4565 (2009) 05 - 0100 - 06 中图分类号 :C812 文献标识码 :A An Empirical Study of Factors Infl uencing Individual Housing Mortgage Loan Defa ult in China Ma Yu Abstract : The risks of individual housing mortgage loan default are exposed in this Subprime Crisis. At present , China’s commercial banks have issued a large number of individual housing mortgage loans , therefore , it’s interested in finding what the factors that make significant impacts on fault are . This paper analyzed the impact on our country individual housing mortgage loan default risk factors with survey data . The findings show that borrower’s high education level leads to high employment stability , which results in the low default rate . And the bigger of the house they purchase , the higher of the ratio of monthly loan repayment amount to household income , which results in the higher default rates. Furthermore , non2local borrowers have high default rates compared to the local ; there is also high default rates appeared in the case of purchasing forward houses than completed houses. The factor that has the most important influence on default is the floor area of house , which is followed by ratio of repayment amount to household income , forward houses and level of education. Key words : Individual Housing Mortgage Loan ; Default Risk ; Empirical Analysis 随着危机的发展和深化 ,原来表现良好的优质住房 抵押贷款和次优住房抵押贷款 ① 都出现了问题 ,给 众多金融机构造成巨额亏损 。 在次贷危机的过程中 ,一些信用良好的借款人 也出现了违约 ,这就给了我们一个很强烈的警示 ,即 我国虽然不存在典型的次级住房抵押贷款市场 ,但 一 、引言 2007 年美国次贷危机爆发并迅速传递到发达 国家市场和新兴市场 ,给全球金融体系带来极大冲 击 ,到现在为止危机还没有结束 。这场危机的直接 原因就是美国次级住房抵