基于copula函数的流域内降雨丰枯遭遇研究-河海期刊网.pdfVIP

第32卷第6期 水摇 资摇 源摇 保摇 护 2016年11月 Vol.32 No.6 WATER RESOURCES PROTECTION Nov. 2016 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1004 6933.2016.06.010 基于 Copula函数的流域内降雨丰枯遭遇研究 1,2 1,2 吕振豫 ,穆建新 (1.流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京摇 100038;2.中国水利水电科学研究院,北京摇 100038) 摘要:基于Copula 函数建立了东江流域上游龙川站、中游河源站和下游博罗站3 个站点汛期、非汛 期及全年降雨丰枯遭遇发生概率的联合分布模型,计算获得各个时段不同情形下降雨丰枯遭遇的 发生概率及条件发生概率。 结果表明:3 个站点降雨丰枯遭遇在时间尺度上存在差异性,非汛期降 雨量不足,调水不利情况最易发生;从年时间尺度看,研究时段内调水不利年份偏多,不利情况发生 概率64%。 认为规划设计水资源调配方案时,应有针对性地利用水库调蓄水量,合理配置,科学调 控,实现流域内水资源高效可持续利用。 关键词:丰枯遭遇;频率分析;Copula 函数;东江流域 中图分类号:P333郾9;X820郾4摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1004 6933(2016)06 0062 08 Study on wetness鄄dryness encountering probability of basin precipitation based on Copula function 1,2 1,2 LYU Zhenyu ,MU Jianxin (1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China; 2. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China) Abstract:Based on the Copulafunction,ajoint distributionmodelwasestablishedto simulatethewetness鄄dryness encountering probability of precipitation in the flood season,non鄄flood season,and over a whole year upstream of the Longchuan Station, in the midstream at the Heyuan Station, and downstream of the Boluo Station in the Dongjiang River Basin. With this model, the precipitation wetness鄄dryness encountering probabilities and conditional probabilities in different scenarios during various periods were calculated. The results show that there are some variabilities in the wetness鄄dryness encountering probability of precipitation at the three stations. The amountofprecipit