电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架及算法.pdfVIP

第31卷 第34期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vo1．31 No．34 Dec．5，2011 2011年12月5日 Proceedings of the CSEE ~201 1 Chin．Soc．for Elec．Eng． 53 文章编号：0258—8013(201 1)34—0053-08 中图分类号：TM 71 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：470·40 电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架及算法 谢绍宇，王秀丽，王锡凡 (西安交通大学电气工程学院，陕西省 西安市 710049) Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-obj ective Risk Method XIE Shaoyu，WANG Xiuli，WANG Xifan (School ofElectrical Engineering，Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049，Shaanxi Province，China) ABSTRACT：The average reliability indices can not 模型，建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE．RTS distinguish between the events of low probability but high 及TH．RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估，研究不同 damage and high probability low damage．In order to overcome 负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况，并 these shortcomings，this paper proposes an extended risk 分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分 analysis framework for the power system based on the 析，风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、 partitioned multi-objective risk method．In the extended 中、低损失范围的条件期望风险，从而对系统的风险状况有 framework，the risk states were divided into three ranges： 一 个全面和深入的了解。 low-damage，moderate—damage and high-damage domains，and three conditional risk functions and conditional probabilities 关键词：电力系统；可靠性评估；分割多目标风险分析；条 were established．On the basis of the capacity outage 件风险；风险分布；概率可靠性评估；容量停运表 probability table，we proposed the risk assessment algorithm to 0 引言 calculate the conditional risk indices．Finally,the IEEE—RTS and the TH—RTS2000 were evaluated by the proposed 电力工业一直在长期不懈地努力解决风险评 framework and algorithm．111e risk distribution and variation in 估问题，一开始使用的都是确定性的准则和方法， different load levels were