Searching For a Lost Plane-美赛数模论文.docxVIP

Team # 35565 Page  PAGE 53 of  NUMPAGES 53 PAGE  MCM 2015 Summary Sheet for Team 35565 For office use onlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________Team Control Number35565?Problem ChosenBFor office use onlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________ Summary The lost MH370 urges us to build a universal search plan to assist searchers to locate the lost plane efficiently and optimize the arrangement of search plans. For the location of the search area, we divided it into two stages, respectively, to locate the splash point and the wreckage’s sunk point. In the first stage, we consider the types of crashed aircraft, its motion and different position out of contact. We also consider the Earth’s rotation, and other factors. Taking all these into account, we establish a model to locate the splash point. Then we apply this model to MH370. we can get the splash point in the open water is 6.813°N 103.49°E and the falling time is 52.4s. In the second stage, considering resistances of the wreckage in different shapes and its distribution affected by ocean currents, we establish a wreckage sunk point model to calculate the horizontal displacement and the angle deviation affected by the ocean currents. The result is 1517m and 0.11°respectively. Next, we extract a satellite map of submarine topography and use MATLAB to depict seabed topography map, determining the settlement of the wreckage by using dichotomy algorithm under different terrains. Finally, we build a Bayesian model and calculate the weight of corresponding area, sending aircrafts to obtain new evidence and refresh suspected wreckage area. For the assignment of the search planes, we divide it into two stages, respectively, to determine the number of the aircraft and the assignment scheme of the search