Predict the temperature-数模美赛08年A题.docVIP

Abstract The global temperature is rising rapidly today which has caused an extensive ice melt, so the study of predicting rising sea level because of ice melt in North Polar is essential. Our study will try to predict the impact to Florida from melting ice in North Polar .Our studies have three steps: Predict the temperature: We did the prediction by Neural network and give the change of temperature in 50 years, based on a large amount of data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); Model the mass of ice melting and the sea level: The sea level model is mainly based on the principle of Thermodynamics and iteration. The results demonstrate that the sea level will rise by 10.8 cm totally in 50 years. Prediction of our model can be proved to be credible by consulting the data from IPCC. We introduce a correct term to modify our model. We can change to simulate sea level rise in different temperature condition. Analyze the impacts to Florida: We model the erosion of Florida’s shoreline to make it clear that when sea level rise to a certain extent that Florida will face many serious problems such as flooding, destruction of biodiversity, (Health Care), Loss of agriculture production (salinization of soil) and so on over the next 50 years.. We find the 17 cities or areas and 15 airports which are severely impacted by the rise of sea level. (Based on our results,) Without attaching more importance to solving the problem, shoreline of several coastal cities like Miami will be eroded seriously, and the lowest placeKey West will be disappeared. It will cost a huge financial loss, so further protection should be put into place. Content Introduction 3 Background 3 Our work 3 Study object: Ice cap in Greenland 3 Modeling the sea level 3 Analysis of Florida 3 Assumption 4 Model Ⅰ:Temperature Prediction 4 Grey Prediction Model: 4 Neural Network prediction Model: 4 Model Ⅱ:Melting ice and the rise of sea level 5 Model the rise of sea level 5 Heat from rise of t