选股的简单方法和信号可靠性分析.docx

浅谈选股的简单方法及信号可靠性分析摘要随着经济的不断发展，人们生活水平也不断提高，越来越多的人们也开始对股票投资产生了极大的兴趣，也就是说在当下广大股民中，有着不在少数的新股民是在对股票知之甚少、甚至一无所知的情况下入市的，那么对于他们而言，是面临着极大的风险的。股票投资的特点就是高收益和高风险，当然高风险的情况下未必会有高收益的产生。本文以广大入市不久的股民为对象，运用基本的股票板块分析的相关知识，论述在选股方面的一些简单方法，运用运筹学上面的层次分析法，建立一个合理可靠的数学模型进行选股。在股民选好股以后，通过一些对股票K线图的分析，找到对应的反弹信号，再从该股的历年股价数据中，进行买卖信号的模拟分析，统计出历年反弹信号出现时，按规定的方法买卖时，所获得的利润率。运用概率论与数理统计的相关知识，将统计得出的利润率数据进行合理的分析与判断。当数据服从正态分布时，通过数据的区间估计与置信区间可得出一个较为真实的利润率，即实施该方法对股票反弹信号进行买卖，当股价到达所能获得的利润率时，将其卖出，股民承担的风险最小，并且大概率情况下能从中获取利益。关键词：股票，股民，选股，板块，利润率AbstractWith the continuous development of the economy, peoples living standards are also rising, more and more people began to have a great interest in stock investment, which means that in the current majority of investors, there are a few of the new investors in the stock know little, or even ignorant of the case into the market, then for them, is facing a great risk. Stock investment is characterized by high returns and high risk, of course, high-risk cases may not have high yield.In this paper, the stock market in the near future for the object, the use of basic stock plate analysis of the relevant knowledge, discusses some of the simple stock selection methods, the use of operational research above the AHP, the establishment of a reasonable and reliable mathematical model for stock selection. After the stock selection of the stock, through a number of stock K-line analysis, to find the corresponding rebound signal, and then from the stock price data over the years, the sale of analog signal analysis, statistical rebound signal over the years, according to regulations of the method of trading, the profit margins obtained. The use of probability theory and mathematical statistics related knowledge, the statistical data obtained by the profit margin of a reasonable analysis and judgments. When the data obey the normal distribution, the interval estimation and confidence interval of the data can get a more real profit rate, that is, the method of buying and selling stock rebo