周新老师讲解Financial Times 第一期.docVIP

周新老师讲解Financial Times 第一期（2012年9月7日文章及视频中文讲解翻译） Made in Mexico gains ground on China A few years ago, anyone seriously trying to suggest that Mexico had the edge on China in the realm of manufacturing exports would probably have been ridiculed and then invited to keep all future arguments strictly to themselves. But since 2010, a growing number of academics, trade experts, bankers and economists has begun to entertain the once seemingly-implausible idea that Mexico is actually holding its own. The latest voice in the chorus is Marco Oviedo from Barclays, who this week published a fascinating research note that concludes, “after lagging Chinese manufacturing exports for a decade, Mexico has taken the lead post-2008-09. We believe this change is likely to be structural and persistent”. While it may be premature to talk about taking the lead, the trend is undeniable – Mexican manufacturing is on the up. Before looking into the reasons, let’s just remind ourselves why this statement is so startling. After China’s eruption on to the world stage following membership into the World Trade Organisation in 2001, things looked bleak for Mexico. Unlike much of South America, for whom China’s growth would create a huge and hungry customer for its agricultural and mineral commodities, Mexico would discover in China a fierce and direct competitor for its cheap manufacturing exports. China made much the same as Mexico – except that it did so at a fraction of the cost thanks mainly to cheap labour. Result? Mexico was in serious trouble. Barclays calculates that the China effect chipped about 60 basis points of Mexico’s gross-domestic-product growth every year between 2002 and 2006. Some of the biggest casualties in Mexico’s manufacturing sector were textiles, clothing and shoes. But after growing at an average of just 4.5 per cent a month on an annualised basis between 1997 and 2012 compared with a staggering 18 per cent in the case of China, both countries’ manufacturing exports ar