How long until human-level AI Results from an expert assessment》.pdfVIP

Technological Forecasting Social Change 78 (2011) 185–195 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting Social Change FROM MY PERSPECTIVE How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment Seth D. Baum a,⁎, Ben Goertzel b, Ted G. Goertzel c a Department of Geography and Rock Ethics Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16801, USA b Novamente LLC, Rockville, MD 20851, USA c Department of Sociology, Rutgers University, Camden, NJ 08102, USA a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: The development of human-level AI has been a core goal of the AI field since its inception, Received 18 March 2010 though at present it occupies only a fraction of the fields efforts. To help understand the Received in revised form 25 August 2010 viability of this goal, this article presents an assessment of expert opinions regarding human- Accepted 19 September 2010 level AI research conducted at AGI-09, a conference for this AI specialty. We found that various experts strongly disagree with each other on certain matters, such as timing and ordering of Keywords: key milestones. However, we did find that most experts expect human-level AI to be reached Expert elicitation within upcoming decades, and all experts give at least some chance that some milestones will Artificial intelligence be reached within this time. Furthermore, a majority of experts surveyed favor an integrative Arti