凤滩电厂近坝库区岩质边坡安全系数的极大似然估计.pdfVIP

第 23 卷 第 11 期 岩石力学与工程学报 23(11) ：1891～1894 2004 年 6 月 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering June ，2004 凤滩电厂近坝库区岩质边坡安全系数的 极大似然估计 金亮星1 2 1 冯伟杰 张家生 (1 中南大学土木建筑学院 长沙 410075) (2 长沙经济技术开发区管理委员会建设局 长沙 410100) 摘要 影响边坡稳定性的因素复杂，并且具有随机和模糊特性。极大似然估计方法可用于边坡稳定性评价。采用 统计学极大似然估计方法所得经验公式，基于圆弧破坏模式，估算了凤滩电厂近坝库区古丈高峰边坡稳定安全系 数，并与常规极限平衡条分法进行了对比分析。结果表明：极大似然方法估计边坡安全系数具有较好的实用性。 关键词 岩石力学，岩质边坡，安全系数，极大似然估计 分类号 TU 455 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1000-6915(2004)11-1891-04 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION ON SAFETY COEFFICIENTS OF ROCKY SLOPE NEAR DAM OF FENGTAN PROJECT 1 2 1 Jin Liangxing ，Feng Weijie ，Zhang Jiasheng 1 ( College of Architectural and Civil Engineering ， Central South University， Changsha 410075 China) (2Construction Bureau，Changsha Economy Technology Exploitation Management Committee， Changsha 410100 China) Abstract The factors ，which control and affect slope stability ，are random and fuzzy variables, so that the maximum likelihood estimation methods are available to solve the uncertain problems ，like the estimation of slope stability. Based on the assumption of circular slip surface，the safety coefficients of slope near dam of Fengtan project are obtained with the maximum likelihood estimation methods and the results are compared with theose from limit equilibrium method. According to the computing results and analyses ，it is showed that the maximum likelihood estimation methods are of practical values for estimation of slope stability. Key words rock mechanics ，rocky slope ，safety coefficient，maximum li