个体客户全生命周期价值的模型和实证研究.pdfVIP

第7 卷第4 期 管　理　学　报 Vol.7 No.4 　　 2010 年4 月　　　　　　　　　　　　Chinese Journal of Management　　　　　　　　　　 Apr . 2010 　　 1, 2 1 1 ( 1. ; 2.) 　　: , , , , , , , : 客户价值; 购买概率; 隐马尔可夫模型; 动态客户关系管理 : 93: : 1672-884 ( 2010)04-0542-05 C A X Individual Customer s CLV Model Construction and Its Empirical Study 1, 2 1 1 LI Jingjing 　SHAO eiji 　YAN Bo ( 1. University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu China, , ; 2. Guangxi Univercity for Nationnalities Nanning China, , ) Abstr act: From the perspective of enterprises, the paper effectively unifies Hidden Markov model and the dynamic programming technology to analyze quantification, decision-making as well as opti- mization of single per sons CLV. It proposes the dynamic model of individual customers CLV and tests the model. The model could be used for parametric estimation using the observed customer pur- chase decision sequence as the solution of the dynamic optimization problem. The model could also be used for dynamic estimation and classification of customers according to the sequence and judgment, of the relation phase of firm and customer s Thus it provides a quantitative method of dynamic cus-. tomer relations management for enterprises and lays the foundation of firm for the implementation o the optimal marketing strategy. Key wor ds: CLV; purchase probability; hidden markov model; dynamic customer relationship management 　　20 世纪90 年代以来, 客户关系管理( cus- 周期里, 对客户价值的评判始终是贯穿CRM 研 tomer relationship management CRM, ) 日益为 究的核心问题。客户价值反映了企业与客户关 企业接受。随着CRM 在企业实践与学术研究中 系的强弱, 通过客户价值分析可以决定:值得花 的不断推进和深入发展, 价值创造作为其核心