数的空间异质性估计基于地理加权回归模型的实证.pdfVIP

中国省域旅游业弹性系数的空间异质性估计 ——基于地理加权回归模型的实证 吴玉鸣 【专题名称】旅游管理 【专题 号】F9 【复印期号】2013 年05 期 【原文出处】《旅游学刊》(京)2013 年2 期第35～43 页 【英文标题】Spatial Heterogeneity Estimation of Regional Tourism Industry Elasticity in Chinese Provinces: An Empirical Study of Geographically Weighted Regression Model 【作者简介】吴玉鸣(1968-)，男，甘肃定西人，博士后，教授，博士生导师， 研究方向为旅游经济模拟与管理决策支持、空间计量经济学等，E-mail： wuyuming@，华东理工大学商学院，上海 200237 【内容提要】基于2001-2009 年中国省域旅游业截面平均值数据，利用考虑空间异质性的 地理加权回归(GWR)生产函数模型，首次对中国省域旅游业的资本和劳动力 弹性系数进行局域变参数实证估计研究。全域和局域空间自相关分析显示， 中国省域旅游业产出存在显著的空间自相关性，具有明显的局域集群趋势； 不考虑和考虑空间自相关性的省域旅游业生产函数全域常参数估计结果显 示，资本投入的弹性系数分别为0.6939 和0.7824，劳动投入的弹性系数分 别为0.4932 和0.3163，要素投入处于规模报酬递增阶段；考虑空间异质性 的GWR 模型局域变参数估计结果显示，资本投入的弹性系数在0.6905～ 0.6958 之间，劳动投入的弹性系数在0.4859～0.4989 之间，各个省域的要 素投入均处于规模报酬递增阶段。GWR 模型能在纳入空间异质性的前提下有 效地估计区域旅游业弹性系数，增强了区域旅游业发展政策含义的差异化指 导意义。 The spatial effects of both interdependence and heterogeneity are common in regional tourism growth processes, and this refers to the indirect or unintentional effects that one regions tourism industry exerts on the tourism industries of other regions. As a result, a regions tourism growth can obtain benefits from their neighbors tourism growth through positive spillover effects. Even though the estimation research on the contributions of capital and labor on outputs in the tourism industry have received a high level of interest internationally and domestically, very few studies have considered spatial effects in theoretical tourism growth analysis and empirical tourism model specifications. The lack of research is especially obvious regarding empirical evidence on the growth of regional tourism industries in Chinas provinces. At present,